What's On My Mind?

So, What Happened Last Night?

2010-02-08T14:02:06Z

Really, all you need to know are the numbers 6 and 5. Or the names Joe Flaco and Mark Sanchez. The Colts lost the Super Bowl because the secondary could not stop the inside routes. Sure, a little more pass rush might have helped, but we all started to think our rookie laden backfield was much better than they were because of the competition we had faced in the playoffs. You can get excited about the low seeds the Colts beat to get to the Super Bowl, but do you think our secondary was as prepared to face Drew Brees and the Saints offense, as the Saints were to face Peyton Manning and crew? The Saints beat Kurt Warner and Bret Farve (two future Hall of Famers) to get to the Super Bowl. The teams they beat were seeded 4 and 2. Their secondary was prepared much better by fact of actual combat.

In fact, I think many pundits missed this point. Looking over the Colts schedule you truly have to go back to November 15 to find a top notch passing offense that the Colts faced (New England). We could debate about Houston on November 29 but I think the playoff experience alone made the Saints ready for a faster tempo in the secondary than anything the Colts had faced.

So, congrats to the Saints. They seem like a great group of guys and not surprizing the Colts felt like the road team yesterday. Finally, how can I not say that it really hurt that an IU guy stuck the dagger in Colt nation's heart (Tracy Porter's TD interception).

The Government Can!

2010-01-25T12:20:25Z

Massachusetts Brings Us Hope And Change

2010-01-20T14:18:22Z

No sense in reviewing the news of the last 24 hours. Unless you have your head under a rock you know that the people of the state of Massachusetts (the state of Kennedy, Dukakis, Kerry) have spoken. For the first time in almost 40 years they are sending a conservative and a Republican into the federal government with their new Senator Scott Brown.

Of course, what happened can be debated on both sides but I think the signal is clear. People, the ordinary people of America, are tired of being laughed at, ignored, and made to feel inferior to the current crowd trying to ram all kinds of new laws and taxes down our throats. This one single election does nothing but at least now provide a chance to have a debate on the issues. Prior to last night (and actually until the leadership of the Senate actually seat Mr. Brown) the folks in charge had the ability to pass whatever legislation they felt supported their big government agenda...with no ability for there to be considered debate or even compromise. The loss of a "filibuster proof" majority now means we can at least slow the wheels down and give a fair, and reasonable chance for oppostion voices to be considered.

I heard portions of Mr. Brown's acceptance speech and can see that he has hit a chord with people in a state not inclined to send conservatives into the federal government. It is a road map for how conservatives should be thinking in the next few months and as we search for a leader to challenge Mr. Obama in 2012.

I will remember that while the honor is mine, this Senate seat belongs to no one person and no political party - and as I have said before, and you said loud and clear today, it is the people's seat.

I said at the very beginning, when I sat down at the dinner table with my family, that win or lose we would run a race which would make us all proud. I kept my word and we ran a clean, issues oriented, upbeat campaign - and I wouldn't trade that for anything.

In every corner of our state, I met with people, looked them in the eye, shook their hand, and asked them for their vote. I didn't worry about their party affiliation, and they didn't worry about mine. It was simply shared conviction that brought us all together.

One thing is clear, voters do not want the trillion-dollar health care bill that is being forced on the American people.

This bill is not being debated openly and fairly. It will raise taxes, hurt Medicare, destroy jobs, and run our nation deeper into debt. It is not in the interest of our state or country - we can do better.

When in Washington, I will work in the Senate with Democrats and Republicans to reform health care in an open and honest way. No more closed-door meetings or back room deals by an out of touch party

And let me say this, with respect to those who wish to harm us, I believe that our Constitution and laws exist to protect this nation - they do not grant rights and privileges to enemies in wartime. In dealing with terrorists, our tax dollars should pay for weapons to stop them, not lawyers to defend them.

Raising taxes, taking over our health care, and giving new rights to terrorists is the wrong agenda for our country. What I've heard again and again on the campaign trail, is that our political leaders have grown aloof from the people, impatient with dissent, and comfortable in the back room making deals. And we can do better.

I'm Scott Brown, I'm from Wrentham, I drive a truck, and I am nobody's senator but yours.

Have You Ever Sold A Home?

2010-01-13T11:58:59Z

If you have ever sold a home, or are in the process of selling a home, I would be very interested to hear what you loved and what you hated about the process. I am working on a project that I believe will address a number of problems associated with the way selling a home is achieved in the United States. I have my suspicions from my own experiences, and of course talking to many people over 20 years of being in this industry. I would like to hear it directly though and not make any assumptions.

Please either contact me directly at joel@wilmothgroup.com or if you wish your comments to be seen publicly comment in whatever forum you are viewing this post.

Employment Data-Behind the Numbers

2010-01-08T17:34:40Z

Fascinating stuff to keep in mind as you hear this discussed in the mainstream media in the next few days. Essentially, government hiring is the only hiring occurring. Low paying jobs are disappearing (hurting economies in places heavily dependent on tourism and service business-ie Florida) and even the unemployment rate among college graduates stands at a record 5%.

Remember, you can spin these numbers lots of ways. Take a few minutes to really understand what is occuring in the economy.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/economy/read-december-jobs-report/

By the way, I think the statute of limitations is up...they can't keep blaming this on George Bush!

Not Surprizing..People Are Fraudulently Claiming The $8k Home Buyer Credit

2010-01-06T12:27:28Z

Anytime the government creates an incentive that is related to the overall reduction of taxes, you can bet people will find a way to try and scam it. This creates a whole new round of government hiring as new auditors are required, and attorneys who can subsequently prosecute the cases. I often wonder if this is not part of the economic development plan when Congress creates these things.

I have been on the record since the beginning that I am not an advocate of the Home Buyer credit. The reasons have been documented in this blog but basically, I believe in letting the markets correct themselves. Additionally, and more importantly, I believe it takes us right back down the path we were on that brought us the housing bubble and the recession-the government creating incentives for people to buy homes who really probably had no business buying a home. This simplifies my beliefs quite a bit and basically, my argument is fruitless because this ship has left the harbor! It has put me at odds with most of my Realtor friends. I have been surprized at the number of Realtors, with a little experience behind them, who actually have agreed with me. There is a minority of members of the National Association of Realtors who did not support the heavy campaign our trade group put forward in getting this credit extended last year.

Now the news comes out that the Treasury's Inspector General for Tax Administration estimates that 73,799 (how do you estimate a number like this) of taxpayers have incorrectly (ie fraudulently) claimed the first-time home buyer credit. This number is only people who have filed for it before it was extended to a broader group of the population. The IRS is not disputing this claim and said "it is studying the matter further." Of course they are. I bet it will take another 2000 new government workers to make sure the credit is properly filed by those who are eligible.

No wonder the entire Washington DC metropolitan area is the fastest job growth area (maybe one of the only) in the country.

Out With The Old..In With The New

2009-12-31T12:27:38Z

In the tradition of what everybody seems to do at the end of a year (or is this a decade?) I am compiling a list. I digress for just a second. Remember the big controversy at the turn of the century when calendar historians showed us the century really did not end until 12/31/2000 and not 12/31/1999? So, they put this little damper on the idea of party like its 1999! That no longer seems to be an issue as all I have seen this week is lists of the top things of this decade. So, I guess the media decides that this is the end of a decade and who am I to argue?

Don't worry though, I have no list for the last ten years and doubt that I will ever take the time to try and remember all that happened during that time. One year, known as 2009, well that is easier.

If you really do not know me, or care to know me, you should stop reading now as none of this will hold any interest or relevance. For anybody still with me...here is what I will remember about 2009.

Claire and Morgan graduate from high school. Big party with family friends on the most beautiful day Indiana can offer.

Claire and Morgan decide to attend Purdue. Break my heart that nobody chooses IU!

The memory of moving the girls to Purdue in August, setting up theri dorm room, and then leaving them.

Sorority rush..you only can appreciate these two words if you have lived it from the perspective of a dad.

Max and Rebecca are both rewarded for months of training by obtaining drivers licenses. Freedom for kids and parents translates into a whole new set of problems.

Fishers High School, led by Claire and Morgan, win the Dance Nationals in Orlando..and we are all there with a quick trip to Disney after.

Rebecca joins the Varsity Dance team and starts to make a name for herself with no big sisters to shadow her.

Max continues his incredible career as a hockey goalie. Starting varsity goalie with great stats. A sport I never played and have learned to appreciate. Crazy system though for how you advance after playing in high school.

An incredible week spent with my parents, kids, Jennifer, Mary and Scott and their kids and John on the Enchantress of the Seas in the Caribbean to celebrate my parents 50th wedding anniversary.

Watching Gee and Papa take shots at Margaritaville in Georgetown Grand Cayman!

Watching Gee and Papa dance together on the actual night of their anniversary at an almost empty piano bar in downtown Indianapolis.

Watching Joey grow into a little boy I remember very well. Sports crazy, knows and follows every team and plays any sport he can.

Seeing our almost 10 year old lab Jake start to suffer health issues that makes you realize how fast ten years really goes.

Thanking God for good health as all of my family had a good health year.

Enjoying endless evenings with neighbors sitting outside under the stars, next to a fire pit, or inside our homes, realizing the value in having a great community of friends.

Spending a few winter evenings with my in-laws Len and Sandy in Palmetto Florida while running back and forth between our Tampa and Fort Myers offices.

Being part of a relationsship that keeps working each and every day, despite the hurdles we face as part of a very unusual existence. Just when I think we might have a few things figured out, a few new ones force us to work even harder!

Days spent seeing, smelling, and existing at Fort Myers Beach. Who says work and relaxation can't mix?

I am sure I forgot something, but this is what comes to mind first about 2009. Oh yea..I turned 50..but we all know that because between friends and family the party went on for two weeks-no joke! What could have been the worst birthday, turned into the best ever.

Enough about 2009...time to turn the page. Have a safe happy New Years and lets all be a part of making 2010 full of a page of great memories.

Merry Christmas To All!

2009-12-24T13:35:29Z

I am about to try and walk away from my computer for what is probably the longest separation of the year. Likely not to get back on it again until Saturday morning. Christmas is that important. Will spend today wth family, tonight church, presents and more family tomorrow. With all the kids at different ages we have a ongoing celebration- age specific!

If you have young ones, this site is a lot of fun. Let them track Santa and his progress toward your home. It is also a great motivator to get them to bed tonight. Check out the Norad Radar Santa tracker.

Finally, my best to you for this most imporant Christian holiday. If you do not celebrate Christmas, best wishes to you for the season. Happy Holidays. Christmas Light Show.wmv

Is This Right?

2009-12-14T20:31:48Z

Slightly stunned..I am reviewing the numerous news items I receive daily and just finished learning that defaulting homeowners just found another new hope..activist judges...

A New York judge has given a homeowner a clean slate, completely eradicating $525,000 in mortgage payments in a foreclosure settlement proceeding. His reasoning - because the mortgage holder, OneWest Bank which was formed from what was left of the failed IndyMac, displayed "unconscionable" lack of good will in refusing to help the homeowner keep their home.

So, let me make sure I understand this. Contracts really are not legal and binding anymore in America? I understand that we do have a method for disolving debt contracts (it is called bankruptcy) but now if a Judge thinks you just were not treated fairly, he can just wipe out half a million of debt?

America..what a country!

Here is the whole story. No surprize that the lender plans to appeal. I think what is more surprizing, but not mentioned , is that OneWest's default portfolio is supported with Federal taxpayer dollars (remember OneWest is the new IndyMac Bank).

Can you connect the dots?

Christmas Surprize

2009-12-10T13:30:00Z

I have a Google Alert set up to track anything that comes up on the web with my last name (also our company name). If you don't do this you might want to consider setting one up. Interesting things might arrive in your inbox that otherwise you would have never known about.

Yesterday I received the following alert:

Google News Alert for: Wilmoth

Magic of holidays stems from psychological need
The Exponent - West Lafayette,IN,USA
Claire Wilmoth, a freshman in the College of Liberal Arts, shares Sager's enthusiasm. Wilmoth believes the "magical quality" of Christmas is contagious and ...

Hmmm..I know this Claire Wilmoth...she calls me Dad. And Ms. Sager is also a long time, great friend, of my daughters. Wonder what this is about?

As I proceeded to read the story, it was maybe one of the greatest gifts I will receive this season as it was not meant for me. To have your soon to be 19 year old daughter quoted as saying

Wilmoth's favorite part of the season is "being able to spend uninterrupted time with my family."

"It's the only solid two days of the year when no one has any other obligations except to each other," Wilmoth said. "There's always great food, gaming, conversations and overall celebration and it's just so uplifting and relaxing!"

Well, you could only hope this is the way your kids feel. The words are not normally going to flow from their mouths to your ears. I know I have not told my parents enough times how I truly feel about family and our lives together. Thanks to the majic of the internet I was delivered this gift. Thought I would share.

You can read the whole story here.

Housing Recovery..Is It Real Or Is It Memorex?

2009-12-10T13:00:00Z

For those of you who reside in the same age category as I, (meaning you actually remember JFK as President) you will recognize this advertising slogan. Not sure how many people even know what Memorex is but for those who don't, a brief reminder. Memorex made recording tapes..first those big reel to reel, then 8 track and cassettes. A great slogan revolved around an opera singer hitting a high note and shattering a glass. Then, to everybody's amazement, the camera panned to a tape actually producing the noise that shattered the glass. Then the slogan asking "Is it real..or is it Memorex"?

Today, the world of residential real estate is all a flutter with the idea that the markets are coming back, now is the time to buy or it will be too late, and other enticing messages. Readers of my posts already know where I stand on the free markets..and I think now is a great time to ask if the surprizing housing statistics that are being announced are real, or artificial? The simple fact is the government is so deep in the housing market they are providing ER services with life support. The patient is breathing but the machines are doing it. What happens if the machines are shut off?

The housing credit has been expanded in a most irresponsible way. More and more selected first time home buyers (many having no financial capacity to really buy) are being led down the path of FHA financing to take advantage of this "limited opportunity". Now the government has expanded the availability of a credit to existing homeowners..if they have owned their own homes for the last five years. Why has this group been handed $6500 from the federal government and not owners of the last four years (of which I qualify)? Bitter..no..I have no interest in moving or selling. But how do these arbitrary breaks get decided?

The effect of this huge give away is a resurgence in housing. In addition, the banks holding back foreclosure inventory, is a gamble that vacant homes in communities will do less harm than the sale of that home that needs to occur. Then we have forced loan modifications so that borrowers who can't afford their homes are given a chance to afford their home. All of these actions are contributing to not a return to a healthy market, but one totally supported by government intervention. Like a drug addict who plans to quit next week, it will be much more difficult to really return to a true picture of the health of the housing market as long as this is the norm.

More proof of the questionable health of the housing market is provided in this column by David Curry titled "Giddy Delinquency." David adds the substance to the argument that the current reporting on the housing recovery is very premature. Based on Freddie Mac delinquencies reported in October, the amount of homeowners in default is now almost 100% more than one year ago.

That statistic shows that the Memorex affect is going to be needed for a long time in order to keep up the illusion so many are now selling.

House Flipping Makes a Comeback

2009-12-08T17:00:00Z

Interesting story in today's on line Wall Street Journal. The fact that this is happening again, when there are so many efforts to delay foreclosures, shows the internal pressure on banks between the need to liquidate these assets and the pressure from the government. The government is taking steps to stabilize and not crash the housing markets. With investors ready in many markets to facilitate these transactions, and subsequently capitalize on the opportunity, I am surprized the government is not looking at a way to prevent the liquidation of defaulted assets for pennys on the dollar. As much of a free market person as I am, I am not sure I think the fact that flipping is again possible, fits with a healthy recovery of the market. A healthy recovery would allow the disposition of these assets for true value and there would not be demand, or financing available, to immediately flip for a 30% or greater profit. I am not criticizing the investors taking advantage of this opportunity...I am questioning why with the billions being invested in forcing loan modifications and short sales, are defaulted note holders not being pressured to take steps to insure value in the liquidation process?

Happy Thanksgiving!

2009-11-25T13:34:50Z

Some of my favorite quotes for the holiday..

"Thanksgiving is so called because we are all so thankful that it only comes once a year." -P. J. O'Rourke

"What we're really talking about is a wonderful day set aside on the fourth Thursday of November when no one diets. I mean, why else would they call it Thanksgiving?" -Erma Bombeck

May your stuffing be tasty
May your turkey plump,
May your potatoes and gravy
have nary a lump.
May your yams be delicious
and your pies take the prize,
and may your Thanksgiving dinner
stay off your thighs!
-Unknown

"An optimist is a person who starts a new diet on Thanksgiving Day." Irv Kupcine

"I would rather be able to appreciate things I cannot have than to have things I am not able to appreciate." --Elbert Hubbard

And finally, this bit of wisdom that I can't pass up. I hope your Thanksgiving is in better taste than this quote from a certain California Governator.

"I love Thanksgiving turkey ... it's the only time in Los Angeles that you see natural breasts." -Arnold Schwarzenegger

Wouldn't It Be Great If They Had Been Right?

2009-11-13T13:20:08Z

They? Our friends in the Federal government who are here, everyday fighting for us. I feel very badly for people who are struggling with their mortgage payments. While the scale of the problems this time are greater, there have always been foreclosures. Why? Because people's lives change. Also, some people are just not operating on the up and up. As I have been saying for almost two years, the volume of problems associated with interest rate adjustments and the resulting increases in payment are not the real issue with regard to today's foreclosure problem. The real problems are the same as they have always been. Unfortunately (as of now) the government can't really affect when you get a divorce, or die, or get sick, or (jobs summit aside) when you lose your job. These events are what get behind people causing the majority to have issues making their mortgage payments....always have and always will. In a limited area of the country (coastal areas) there is also an issue of people who are under water to their home value due to the normalization of prices that this recession has caused. This is a more limited issue and, in my experience, a lot of these borrowers are in trouble because they are also speculators who tried to jump on the big ramp up in values during the first part of the decade.

In a think tank somewhere, in a land where the people running the country believe the government can save us all from bad, somebody decided to save four million homeowners who are struggling to make their loan payments. Using the big stick of the government, and the power of public ridicule if mortgage companies did not participate as expected, the government will once again beat the forces of the market. Finally, because the government loves acronyms, this program needs to be called HAMP for Home Affordable Modification Program.

So, the results are starting to trickle in from this plan to fix what was previously accepted as the risk an individual took when they borrowed money. Here are a few facts from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Less than 3 in 10 mortgages modified in 2008 are still current.

Over 40% of mortgages modified in the first quarter of 2009 are again in default.

Then there is the conclusion of a report issued a few weeks ago by the Federal Reserve Board and for some reason not widely discussed.

It is too early to judge how successful HAMP will be. In principle, the program appears to mitigate several obstacles to modifications that we identified in earlier work, including the high cost to mortgage servicers of pursuing modifications rather than foreclosure, legal concerns among servicers, and complications associated with second liens. And, indeed, take-up appears to be substantial, with the Administration meeting its initial goal of having 500,000 trial modifications started by November 1, 2009.

That said, the number of foreclosures prevented by the program will likely be limited by two factors. First, for unemployed homeowners, the required reduction in the payment stream might be so large that the potential modification does not qualify for the program because it would yield a lower return to the mortgage lenders and investors than that obtainable under foreclosure Thus, additional initiatives to address the problems of job losers may be needed. Second, the focus of the program on reducing the payments associated with the mortgage rather than the principal of the mortgage may limit its attractiveness to borrowers whose equity is sufficiently negative that a reasonable trajectory of future home prices is unlikely to put the homeowner "above water" in the foreseeable future. The recent addition to HAMP of streamlined procedures for short sales and "deed in lieu" transactions should help with this shortcoming and reduce the incidence of costly foreclosures, even if it does not keep homeowners in their homes.

And this statement: Lenders, investors, and taxpayers will also bear the costs of loans that redefault after receiving a HAMP modification, which highlights another limitation of the HAMP rules for modifications. The loans that are most likely to redefault are those with large amounts of negative equity.

So, what does Joel recommend? If the government truly wants to get involved in this issue, lets have a program where the structure is in place for refinancing mortgage balances to accurately assess value with very low, subsidized, interest rates. Make sure the borrowers qualify which will ensure a much lower redefault rate. Take the write downs and allow the servicers and investors a very significant tax credit. A mix of private and fiscal solutions, that eliminate the bad publicity of high redefault rates while truly keeping homeowners in their homes when that is where they want to be!

Wait, Timothy Geithner is on line two. Better take that call!

So You Really Think our Government Can Fix Health Care?

2009-10-23T14:08:05Z

Ponder this...

The U.S. Post Service was established in 1775 There has been 234 years to get it right ...is it?

Social Security was established in 1935. 74 years to get it right and it is broke.

Fannie Mae was established in 1938. There has been 71 years and last year the government had to put full resources into it to save it.

The War on Poverty started in 1964. There has been 45 years to solve the problem; $1 trillion of our money is confiscated each year and transferred to "the poor" with no victory in sight.

Medicare and Medicaid were established in 1965. There has been 44 years to get it right and they too are broke.

Freddie Mac was established in 1970. 39 years later (see Fannie Mae above).

The Department of Energy was created in 1977 to lessen our dependence on foreign oil. It has ballooned to 16,000 employees with a budget of $24 billion a year and we import more oil than ever before. There has been32 years to get it right. Are we any less dependent on foreign oil today than 1974?

Some great ideas just don't work. Well meaning people have through the years thought these ideas and programs would make a difference for problems that existed at the time. Have they?

What about your tax burden to support the experimentation with these ideas?

If you keep making the same mistake over and over again, does your employer let you keep your job?